Evidence of a Trapped Electorate

I’ve been talking to several polling experts, especially sharing my “Why Public Opinion Polls Aren’t” piece. Charles H. Franklin at the University of Wisconsin sent me some interesting polls, especially this one:

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll [June, 2007]

Would you consider voting for a presidential candidate you like who is a third party independent candidate?

67% Yes
25 No
8 Don’t know

Do you think a qualified third party independent candidate has a reasonable chance of winning a presidential election or not?

31% Yes
63 No
6 Don’t know

So a strong majority of respondents seem to want a third party candidate — while a strong majority of respondents think such a candidate would not have a reasonable chance of winning.

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